Mathematics

Mathematics

Mid Term

 

1.Deterministic techniques assume that no uncertainty exists in model parameters.

 

Answer

 

[removed]True

 

[removed]False

 

2. An inspector correctly identifies defective products 90% of the time. For the next 10 products, the probability that he makes fewer than 2 incorrect inspections is 0.736.

 

Answer

 

[removed]True

 

[removed]False

 

3. A continuous random variable may assume only integer values within a given interval.

 

Answer

 

[removed]True

 

[removed]False

 

4. A decision tree is a diagram consisting of circles decision nodes, square probability nodes, and branches.

 

Answer

 

[removed]True

 

[removed]False

 

5. Question 5

 

Excel can only be used to simulate systems that can be represented by continuous random variables.

 

Answer

 

[removed]True

 

[removed]False

 

Question 6

 

Starting conditions have no impact on the validity of a simulation model.

 

Answer

 

[removed]True

 

[removed]False

 

Question 7

 

Data cannot exhibit both trend and cyclical patterns.

 

Answer

 

[removed]True

 

[removed]False

 

Question 8

 

Qualitative methods are the least common type of forecasting method for the long-term strategic planning process.

 

Answer

 

[removed]True

 

[removed]False

 

Question 9

 

Assume that it takes a college student an average of 5 minutes to find a parking spot in the main parking lot. Assume also that this time is normally distributed with a standard deviation of 2 minutes. What time is exceeded by approximately 75% of the college students when trying to find a parking spot in the main parking lot?

 

Answer

 

[removed] 3.7 minutes
[removed] 5.8 minutes
[removed] 6.4 minutes
[removed] 9.2 minutes

 

 

Question 10

__________ is a measure of dispersion of random variable values about the expected value.

Answer

[removed] Standard deviation
[removed] Range
[removed] The z-score (the standard score)
[removed] All of the above

Question 11

The __________ is the expected value of the regret for each decision.

Answer

[removed] expected value
[removed] expected opportunity loss
[removed] expected value of perfect information
[removed] none of the above

Question 12

Developing the cumulative probability distribution helps to determine

Answer

[removed] the coefficient of variation
[removed] data sets
[removed] random number ranges
[removed] all of the above

Question 13

Two hundred simulation runs were completed using the probability of a machine breakdown from the table below. The average number of breakdowns from the simulation trials was 1.93 with a standard deviation of 0.20.

No. of breakdowns per week Probability Cumulative probability
0 .10 .10
1 .25 .35
2 .36 .71
3 .22 .93
4 .07 1.00

What is the probability of 2 or fewer breakdowns?

Answer

[removed] .10
[removed] .25
[removed] .35
[removed] .71

Question 14

Random numbers generated by a __________ process instead of a __________ process are pseudorandom numbers.

Answer

[removed] physical / physical
[removed] physical / mathematical
[removed] mathematical / physical
[removed] mathematical / mathematical

Question 15

Consider the following frequency of demand:

https://blackboard.strayer.edu/courses/1/MAT540106VA016-1152-001/ppg/respondus/exam_Midterm_Exam/image001503a7ec5.jpg

If the simulation begins with 0.8102, the simulated value for demand would be

Answer

[removed] 1
[removed] 2
[removed] 3
[removed] 4

Question 16

__________ is a category of statistical techniques that uses historical data to predict future behavior.

Answer

[removed] Qualitative methods
[removed] Regression
[removed] Time series
[removed] Quantitative methods

Question 17

Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame:
https://blackboard.strayer.edu/courses/1/MAT540106VA016-1152-001/ppg/respondus/exam_Midterm_Exam/image004503a7ec5.jpg

If the forecast for period 5 is equal to 275, use exponential smoothing with α = .40 to compute a forecast for period 7.

Answer

[removed] 273
[removed] 277
[removed] 267.8
[removed] 286.2

Question 18

Which of the following possible values of alpha would cause exponential smoothing to respond the most slowly to sudden changes in forecast errors?

Answer

[removed] .01
[removed] .10
[removed] .50
[removed] .90

Question 19

__________ is the difference between the forecast and actual demand.

Answer

[removed] Forecast mistake
[removed] Forecast error
[removed] MAD
[removed] Forecast accuracy

Question 20

In exponential smoothing, the closer alpha is to __________, the greater the reaction to the most recent demand.

Answer

[removed] -1
[removed] 0
[removed] 1
[removed] -1 or 1

Question 21

Consider the following demand and forecast.

Period Demand Forecast
1 7 10
2 12 15
3 18 20
4 22

If MAD = 2, what is the forecast for period 4?

Answer

[removed] 21
[removed] 22
[removed] 23
[removed] none of the above

Question 22

__________ is absolute error as a percentage of demand.

Answer

[removed] Cumulative error
[removed] MAD
[removed] MAPD
[removed] Average error

Question 23

Coefficient of determination is the percentage of the variation in the __________ variable that results from the __________ variable.

Answer

[removed] dependent, dependent
[removed] independent, dependent
[removed] dependent, independent
[removed] independent, independent

Question 24

Consider the following graph of sales.

https://blackboard.strayer.edu/courses/1/MAT540106VA016-1152-001/ppg/respondus/exam_Midterm_Exam/image003503a7ec5.jpg

Which of the following characteristics is exhibited by the data?

Answer

[removed] Trend only
[removed] Trend plus seasonal
[removed] Seasonal only
[removed] None of the above

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