Law

POL341 Covert Action and Intelligence Week 3 Lecture 3 Analysis – Part 2

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Question the Source

Historical Reporting

Credibility Analysis

List of Motivations

Technology Limitations

Who is talking, what is their relationship (Husb-Wife, Guys at the Gym)

Tradecraft Rule 2: Question the Source

Tradecraft Rule 3: Remove Biases

CIA

Tradecraft Rule 3: Remove Biases

CIA

Focus groups

Questionnaires

Trend analysis

Forecasting

Benchmarking

SWOT

Game theoretical approaches

Simulations

Ratio analysis

Cost analysis

Spread sheets

Devil’s advocate

PEST

Statistical analysis

Scenario analysis

Signal Analysis and Early Warning Analysis

Power analysis (or Follow the Money)

Toolbox

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Link Analysis

Network Analysis

Data Mining

Timeline Analysis

Transaction Analysis

Telephone Analysis

Other Analytical Methods

Spreadsheets, Databases, Tools. Recall, all the tech gear that delivers guidance, info needs, processing, analyzing, within a classified process, must talk to each other and be sharable. This is a large problem. This is structural stovepiping, or system driven, vice personality driven.

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Just because it is in a computer or database, or on the web, doesn’t mean its credible or true

QUESTION the credibility of every piece of information

“Garbage In, Garbage Out”

Using Computers and Databases

US
Build ~ Build
Rogue State Attack $60B $5B+G $1Tr $5B+G
~ Attack $60B 0 0 0

Prisoner’s Dilemma: Logic

Mirror-Imaging: They will do what you think is rational

Groupthink: Everybody else thinks X will happen, the tallest nail is hammered first…

Competitive Analysis: Protection of Info and loss of objectivity as individuals and orgs are pitted against each other

Collaborative Analysis: Any problems?

Stovepiping: Systematic and Personality (Tech, Comp Analysis, Secrecy Needs)

Analytical Barriers

Intel trying to make policy

Policy trying to perform intel

Conclusion-based analysis

Politicized Intelligence

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Tradecraft Rule 4: Deliver to Your Customer

Know your customer and need (e.g. Tactical or Strategic)

Write for tailored reuse

Products must be discoverable by those who need them

Tradecraft essential, not expendable

Timely electronic dissemination is always the goal

Train to think of customers inclusively

National Intelligence Estimate

Tailored to President’s wishes

The President’s Daily Briefing (PDB)

Tailored to presidents wishes

Senior Executive Intelligence Brief (SEIB)

Daily CIA newspaper

Senior Executive & Military Officials and Legislate oversight

Top Down Delivery Products

These are the collective and collaborative work of the community.

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Intelligence not only has to train new recruits but also to educate its customers. This is a formidable task because the latter, at a more advanced age, are very busy people, sure of their own judgment […]. They have to be convinced of what intelligence can, and what it cannot, achieve. — Walter Lacquer, Intelligence Scholar

Policy and Intel

Sherman Kent – Analyst 3 Wishes:

Know Everything (All Source Analysis)

Be Believed

Influence Policy for the Good

You Get Three Wishes

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Thorough

Objective

Confident (Confidence Levels)

Truthful

Admit Product shortcomings

Understand your products and your own inherent biases

Package

Preserve Your Credibility

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