Law
POL341 Covert Action and Intelligence Week 3 Lecture 3 Analysis – Part 2
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Question the Source
Historical Reporting
Credibility Analysis
List of Motivations
Technology Limitations
Who is talking, what is their relationship (Husb-Wife, Guys at the Gym)
Tradecraft Rule 2: Question the Source
Tradecraft Rule 3: Remove Biases
CIA
Tradecraft Rule 3: Remove Biases
CIA
Focus groups
Questionnaires
Trend analysis
Forecasting
Benchmarking
SWOT
Game theoretical approaches
Simulations
Ratio analysis
Cost analysis
Spread sheets
Devil’s advocate
PEST
Statistical analysis
Scenario analysis
Signal Analysis and Early Warning Analysis
Power analysis (or Follow the Money)
Toolbox
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Link Analysis
Network Analysis
Data Mining
Timeline Analysis
Transaction Analysis
Telephone Analysis
Other Analytical Methods
Spreadsheets, Databases, Tools. Recall, all the tech gear that delivers guidance, info needs, processing, analyzing, within a classified process, must talk to each other and be sharable. This is a large problem. This is structural stovepiping, or system driven, vice personality driven.
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Just because it is in a computer or database, or on the web, doesn’t mean its credible or true
QUESTION the credibility of every piece of information
“Garbage In, Garbage Out”
Using Computers and Databases
| US | |||
| Build | ~ Build | ||
| Rogue State | Attack | $60B $5B+G | $1Tr $5B+G |
| ~ Attack | $60B 0 | 0 0 |
Prisoner’s Dilemma: Logic
Mirror-Imaging: They will do what you think is rational
Groupthink: Everybody else thinks X will happen, the tallest nail is hammered first…
Competitive Analysis: Protection of Info and loss of objectivity as individuals and orgs are pitted against each other
Collaborative Analysis: Any problems?
Stovepiping: Systematic and Personality (Tech, Comp Analysis, Secrecy Needs)
Analytical Barriers
Intel trying to make policy
Policy trying to perform intel
Conclusion-based analysis
Politicized Intelligence
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Tradecraft Rule 4: Deliver to Your Customer
Know your customer and need (e.g. Tactical or Strategic)
Write for tailored reuse
Products must be discoverable by those who need them
Tradecraft essential, not expendable
Timely electronic dissemination is always the goal
Train to think of customers inclusively
National Intelligence Estimate
Tailored to President’s wishes
The President’s Daily Briefing (PDB)
Tailored to presidents wishes
Senior Executive Intelligence Brief (SEIB)
Daily CIA newspaper
Senior Executive & Military Officials and Legislate oversight
Top Down Delivery Products
These are the collective and collaborative work of the community.
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Intelligence not only has to train new recruits but also to educate its customers. This is a formidable task because the latter, at a more advanced age, are very busy people, sure of their own judgment […]. They have to be convinced of what intelligence can, and what it cannot, achieve. — Walter Lacquer, Intelligence Scholar
Policy and Intel
Sherman Kent – Analyst 3 Wishes:
Know Everything (All Source Analysis)
Be Believed
Influence Policy for the Good
You Get Three Wishes
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Thorough
Objective
Confident (Confidence Levels)
Truthful
Admit Product shortcomings
Understand your products and your own inherent biases
Package
Preserve Your Credibility
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